Manarin Investment Counsel, Ltd.

"There is no mystery behind the rise in oil prices.  They rose too high too fast because of booming demand for oil for petrochemical products, electric power and shipping from many emerging economies (particularly China, India and the Middle East).  Meanwhile, the supply of oil slipped in the US, Mexico, Venezuela, Nigeria, and Russia.

But now JPMorgan analysts estimate that oil will drop to $85 a barrel from 2009 to 2011.  Even Goldman Sachs analyst Arjun Murti, who recently guessed oil might reach $200, later told Barron's that oil will likely drop to $75 or less in the long run.

The urge to blame speculators is as big a waste of time as blaming oil companies.  Americans want more oil and gas - not more hot air from politicians."

 

From Scapegoating the Speculators by the CATO Institute's Alan Reynolds.