Some of you may have heard some noise in the media over the past week about the small dip in ...
our blog
Has "Buy Low – Sell High" Ever Been More Obvious?
January 16, 2009
Some excellent points and a position I fully agree with in this excerpt from a recent Longleaf Partners shareholder letter:
Over 33 years we have operated successfully through six bear markets and are now in our seventh. This one is the most severe, the most painful. Conversely, it is the one that has created the most compelling opportunity and should produce the highest returns when the fear subsides. Several observations indicate the extremes affecting the market, and we believe, imply that a bottom was reached in November.
- The earnings yield of the S&P 500 relative to Treasurys has made equities the most compelling since the mid 1930s.
- The annual 10 year return for large company stocks has turned negative - something that has occurred only two other times, in 1938 and 1939, since tracking began in 1926.
- The VIX, an index measuring expected volatility and therefore fear, hit an all-time high in November.
- Significant margin calls and capital calls from various types of private funds have caused widespread selling of equities.
- Advisor sentiment measuring bulls versus bears has fallen to the lowest level in over two decades.
- The amount of cash being held on the sidelines by individuals has grown to a sum significantly greater than the total market cap of U.S. stocks.
- Investors have bought Treasurys with no return, an indicator of the fear of other investments.
- Institutional managers have held high cash balances in spite of acknowledging equities' undervaluation.
- Warren Buffett and Prem Watsa, two of the best fundamental investors, have made significant moves into equities.
- Insider buying at companies has been rampant.
Bottom Line: In our opinion, buying ownership assets such as stocks, land, real estate, raw materials, or precious metals looks to be the smartest move any long term investor could make today.


